“It’s hard to infer causality in any of this, to rerun the last four years of history without the pandemic,” Stewart said. “It is striking, though, when you look at the time trend, if you just remove 2020 it looks like 2022 is not too far from where the trend would have been. It’s reasonable to argue that 2020 had less of a long-term impact on voting by mail and voting in person than we might have guessed in 2020.”

But one thing 2020 did have an impact on is who was voting by mail. Even as states moved to expand mail-in voting in response to the pandemic, Trump was sowing doubt about the legitimacy and security of this method of voting. This led to a noticeable partisan split in voting methods. According to the SPAE, in 2020, 60 percent of Democrats reported voting by mail, compared with 32 percent of Republicans. And this divide persisted into the 2022 midterms as Trump (and many Republicans actually on the ballot that year) clung to his claims of a stolen election: In 2022, 46 percent of Democrats reported voting by mail, compared with 27 percent of Republicans.

Voting method hasn’t always been polarized by party, Stewart explained. In previous elections, both Republicans and Democrats voted by mail in roughly the same proportion, and in the early days of mail-in voting, it was actually Republican voters who were more likely to cast their ballots this way. And while some GOP campaigns are reportedly hoping to restore trust among Republican voters and get them to embrace this method of voting, it’s tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube. While 87 percent of registered voters supporting Democratic candidates said they were very or somewhat confident that mail-in or absentee ballots would be counted accurately, just 37 percent of registered voters supporting Republican candidates did, according to a Pew Research Center survey from October 2022 — the same share that reported confidence in mail-in or absentee voting before the 2020 election, which suggests that these are views that linger.

The 2020 election did more than change perspectives on mail-in voting — it also led to widespread changes in the laws surrounding it. Following the 2020 election, there was an unprecedented surge in election legislation introduced at the state level, some to expand voter access and some to restrict it. Regulations surrounding mail-in voting represented the largest share of new voting-related legislation introduced in the first quarter of 2021, according to a report from Voting Rights Lab, a nonpartisan organization that tracks election-related legislation at the state level. As of March 31, 2021, bills related to mail-in voting accounted for 44 percent of the total bills Voting Rights Lab was tracking at that time. In 2021 and 2022, 39 states enacted legislation related to mail-in voting — 25 states expanded access, 11 restricted it and three did a bit of both. And so far this year, 63 new mail-in voting laws were enacted — 35 that expanded access, 13 that restricted it and 15 that had a mixed, unclear or neutral impact, according to Voting Rights Lab’s tracker.

“It’s hard to see the intentions [behind these laws], but we do see an alignment in the timing, and we don’t think that’s altogether coincidental [that these laws were passed] coming out of the 2020 election where we did see a sharp rise in mail voting and early voting,” said Megan Bellamy, the vice president of law and policy for Voting Rights Lab.

Nationwide, the number of new laws that expand voter access has outpaced the number of laws that restrict it, and not only when it comes to voting by mail. But at the state level, there have been stark differences in the kinds of laws passed. In 2021 and 2022, 23 states generally expanded voting access, 11 states generally restricted it and six states enacted legislation with mixed outcomes, according to the Voting Rights Lab. While states like California and Nevada passed laws to proactively send mail ballots to all active registered voters, for example, states like Texas, Georgia and Florida added new requirements to mail-ballot applications, making it even harder for voters to use this method.

Sometimes, especially with expansive omnibus voting bills, a state would enact a law that simultaneously expanded access (say, by increasing the number of days of early voting) and restricted it (say, by introducing new voter-ID requirements), Bellamy said. Along with those changes to mail-in voting, several states have moved to purge inactive voters from their rolls more often or expand the criteria for when a voter is purged (such as not having voted in the last two elections). There has also been a trend of restoring voting rights to felons.

The result is a patchwork of voting laws even more variegated than our famously decentralized voting system was before 2020: Not only has the voting process been transformed since 2020, but it’s been transformed in different ways for different states. Many voters, particularly those who haven’t cast a ballot since the last presidential election, will be going to the polls under very different regulations than the last time.

Once at the polls, those voters may be encountering a different environment than before 2020 as well. Trump’s claims of a stolen election led many Americans to lose trust in their election system, leading some to threaten or harass election officials. In turn, some of those officials stepped down or retired early, and in their place, a new wave of partisan, election-denying officials have emerged. Though the vast majority of election administrators remain nonpartisan civil servants, a handful of bad actors now charged with running our elections has already led to disruptions in 2022 and may lead to more in 2024.

It goes beyond spreading conspiracy theories or publicly questioning election results — some of these officials have taken actions that jeopardized the integrity of elections. In a review of behavior by election officials in six states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Informing Democracy, a nonprofit that researches vote-counting and certification, identified 94 local officials who had violated their non-discretionary duty through actions such as voting against certifying elections in their jurisdictions or allowing outside access to voting equipment. For example, two members of the board of supervisors in Cochise County, Arizona, refused to vote to certify local election results in 2022 in protest of the results in a different Arizona county, until a judge ordered them to do so.

At the end of the day, the results of the 2022 election were certified across the country and the rightful winners sworn into office. But Peter Bondi, the managing director of Informing Democracy, said these disruptions still have an impact.

“There is a real danger here,” Bondi said. “The disruptions cause delay, and delay has a couple consequences. One is shaking public confidence in the election, which only fuels more conspiracy concerns. And two is [missing] real deadlines that need to be followed.”

The lingering distrust in elections — and in particular electronic voting equipment — has led some voters to call for our election infrastructure to be overhauled. This is one area where, by and large, 2020 did not seem to disrupt existing trends. Even before 2020, more and more jurisdictions were moving away from paperless voting machines to paper ballots marked by voters (either by hand or using a ballot-marking device), which has long been the recommendation from election-security experts. That trend has continued, according to Verified Voting, a nonpartisan organization that tracks election technology used across the country. In 2018, 71.9 percent of registered voters lived in a jurisdiction that used voter-marked paper ballots. In 2020, 88.5 percent did, and heading into 2024, 94.1 percent of registered voters now live in a jurisdiction that uses paper ballots.

“The larger trend is that paperless systems continue to be phased out,” said Mark Lindeman, policy and strategy director of Verified Voting. “I don’t detect any clear signs that that trend has accelerated since 2020.”

Where 2020 has had an influence is in the push for hand-counting ballots. Distrusting machines, some voters have demanded their local election offices abandon the optical scanners used to tally ballots in most of the country in favor of human hand counts, something that security experts don’t recommend due to the high risk of error. While a handful of jurisdictions have made the switch (or, in the case of Nye County, Nevada, introduced hand counts in addition to optical scanners), overall, Lindeman said, the trend since 2020 has still been to move away from hand counts. Over 500 precincts representing more than 230,000 voters have moved away from hand counts since 2020 so far, compared to just four jurisdictions representing about 2,900 registered voters that moved from optical scanners to hand counts.

Data as of July 26, 2023. California’s Shasta County, home to more than 111,000 registered voters, has voted to switch to hand-counts but is facing possible restrictions from the state legislature.

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“At this moment it’s an 80-to-1 ratio against the hand-count movement, which tracks with my experience going back to 2005,”; e(* ). style.height = i}}}))}();(* )Stewart stated.“Actual hand-count jurisdictions are gradually drifting away from that method.”

However something 2020 did have an effect on is(*) that (*) was electing by mail. Also as states transferred to increase mail-in ballot in feedback to the pandemic, Trump was sowing question concerning the authenticity and also protection of this technique of ballot. This resulted in an obvious partial split in electing approaches. According to the SPAE, in 2020, 60 percent of Democrats reported ballot by mail, compared to 32 percent of Republicans. And also this divide continued right into the 2022 midterms as Trump( and also numerous Republicans in fact on the tally that year) holds on to his cases of a swiped political election: In 2022, 46 percent of Democrats reported ballot by mail, compared to 27 percent of Republicans. (*) Ballot technique hasn’t constantly been polarized by event, Stewart clarified. In previous political elections, both Republicans and also Democrats elected by mail in about the exact same percentage, and also in the very early days of mail-in ballot, it was in fact Republican citizens that were most likely to cast their tallies by doing this. And also while some GOP projects are supposedly wishing to bring back count on amongst Republican citizens and also obtain them to accept this technique of ballot, it is difficult to place the tooth paste back in television. While 87 percent of signed up citizens sustaining Autonomous prospects stated they were extremely or rather positive that mail-in or absentee tallies would certainly be counted properly, simply 37 percent of signed up citizens sustaining Republican prospects did, according to a Church bench Proving ground study from October 2022– the exact same share that reported self-confidence in mail-in or absentee ballot prior to the 2020 political election, which recommends that these are sights that remain. (*) The 2020 political election did greater than modification viewpoints on mail-in ballot– it additionally resulted in prevalent adjustments in the regulations bordering it. Adhering to the 2020 political election, there was an extraordinary rise in political election regulation presented at the state degree, some to increase citizen gain access to and also some to limit it. Laws bordering mail-in ballot stood for the biggest share of brand-new voting-related regulation presented in the initial quarter of 2021, according to a record from Ballot Civil liberty Laboratory, a detached company that tracks election-related regulation at the state degree. Since March 31, 2021, expenses connected to mail-in ballot made up 44 percent of the complete expenses Ballot Legal rights Laboratory was tracking during that time. In 2021 and also 2022, 39 states established regulation pertaining to mail-in ballot– 25 states increased gain access to, 11 limited it and also 3 did a little bit of both. Therefore much this year, 63 brand-new mail-in ballot regulations were established– 35 that increased gain access to, 13 that limited it and also 15 that had a blended, vague or neutral influence, according to Ballot Civil liberty Laboratory’s tracker.(*) stated Megan Bellamy, the vice head of state of legislation and also plan for Ballot Civil liberty Laboratory. (*) Nationwide, the variety of brand-new regulations that increase citizen gain access to has actually surpassed the variety of regulations that limit it, and also not just when it involves ballot by mail. However at the state degree, there have actually been raw distinctions in the type of regulations passed.
In 2021 and also 2022, 23 states typically increased ballot gain access to, 11 states typically limited it and also 6 states established regulation with blended results, according to the Ballot Civil Liberties Laboratory. While states like The golden state and also Nevada passed regulations to proactively send out mail tallies to all energetic authorized citizens, for instance, states like Texas, Georgia and also Florida included brand-new demands to mail-ballot applications, making it also harder for citizens to utilize this technique. (*) Occasionally, specifically with large omnibus ballot expenses, a state would certainly establish a legislation that all at once increased gain access to (claim, by boosting the variety of days of very early ballot) and also limited it (claim, by presenting brand-new voter-ID demands), Bellamy stated. Together with those adjustments to mail-in ballot, numerous states have actually transferred to remove non-active citizens from their rolls more frequently or increase the standards for when a citizen is removed (such as not having actually enacted the last 2 political elections). There has actually additionally been a fad of bring back ballot legal rights to lawbreakers. (*) The outcome is a jumble of electing regulations much more variegated than our notoriously decentralized ballot system was prior to 2020: Not just has the ballot procedure been changed given that 2020, however it’s been changed in various means for various states. Several citizens, specifically those that have not cast a tally given that the last governmental political election, will certainly be mosting likely to the surveys under extremely various policies than the last time. (*) As soon as at the surveys, those citizens might be running into a various atmosphere than prior to 2020 too. Trump’s cases of a swiped political election led numerous Americans to shed rely on their political election system, leading some to intimidate or pester political election authorities. Subsequently, several of those authorities tipped down or retired early, and also in their location, a new age of partial, election-denying authorities have actually arised. Though the large bulk of political election managers stay detached civil slaves, a handful of criminals currently billed with running our political elections has actually currently resulted in interruptions in 2022 and also might bring about a lot more in 2024. (*) It surpasses spreading out conspiracy theory concepts or openly doubting political election outcomes– several of these authorities have actually acted that threatened the stability of political elections. In a testimonial of habits by political election authorities in 6 states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and also Wisconsin), Informing Freedom, a not-for-profit that looks into vote-counting and also qualification, recognized 94 regional authorities that had actually broken their non-discretionary responsibility with activities such as electing versus licensing political elections in their territories or enabling outdoors accessibility to electing tools. As an example, 2 participants of the board of managers in Cochise Region, Arizona, rejected to elect to accredit regional political election leads to 2022 in objection of the cause a (*) various (*) Arizona area, up until a court purchased them to do so. (*) At the end of the day, the outcomes of the 2022 political election were accredited throughout the nation and also the rightful victors promised right into workplace. However Peter Bondi, the taking care of supervisor of Informing Freedom, stated these interruptions still have an effect. (*) Bondi stated. (*) (*) The remaining suspect in political elections– and also specifically digital ballot tools– has actually led some citizens to ask for our political election framework to be revamped. This is one location where, mostly, 2020 did not appear to interfere with existing patterns. Also prior to 2020, an increasing number of territories were relocating far from paperless ballot devices to paper tallies noted by citizens (either by hand or utilizing a ballot-marking gadget), which has actually long been the suggestion from election-security specialists. That pattern has actually proceeded, according to Verified Ballot, a detached company that tracks political election innovation utilized throughout the nation. In 2018, 71.9 percent of signed up citizens resided in a territory that utilized voter-marked paper tallies. In 2020, 88.5 percent did, and also heading right into 2024, 94.1 percent of signed up citizens currently reside in a territory that utilizes paper tallies. (*) stated Mark Lindeman, plan and also technique supervisor of Verified Ballot. (*) Where 2020 has had an impact remains in the promote hand-counting tallies. Questioning devices, some citizens have actually required their regional political election workplaces desert the optical scanners utilized to tally ballots in a lot of the nation for human hand matters, something that protection specialists (*) do not (*) advise as a result of the high danger of mistake. While a handful of territories have actually made the button (or, when it comes to Nye Region, Nevada, presented hand matters along with optical scanners), in general, Lindeman stated, the pattern given that 2020 has actually still been to relocate (*) away (*) from hand matters. Over 500 districts standing for greater than 230,000 citizens have actually relocated far from hand matters given that 2020 up until now, contrasted to simply 4 territories standing for concerning 2,900 signed up citizens that relocated from optical scanners to hand matters. (*) Information since July 26, 2023. The golden state’s Shasta Region, residence to greater than 111,000 signed up citizens, has actually elected to switch over to hand-counts however is encountering feasible constraints from the state legislature. (*)” > (*) 1 (*) Lindeman stated. (*) Virtually every element of ballot– from the policies bordering it, to the technique utilized to cast a tally, to just how those tallies are counted– has actually been changed over the previous numerous years. A few of this turmoil can be liquid chalked up to the amazing situations and also response to the 2020 political election, however some is simply the all-natural development of our ever-changing political election system. Completely, it implies that, in 2024, citizens will certainly appear to the ballot cubicle (or fracture open the envelope including their tally!) encountering an extremely various landscape than the one they experienced 4, or absolutely 8, years prior. And also we most likely do not yet completely recognize just how that will certainly impact the political election. (*).